You have to handicap the NFL regular season much different than the preseason–you should know this already. Starters start and play the whole game, not just quarters or halves. The effort level of those starters is elevated, to an extent. Crowds become a factor. Refs have ironed out their kinks with the new rule changes. Adapt to the changes and you’ll make some money. But what do I look for?
What we will be looking for as Week One approaches:
How does the return of Revis affect the Jets/Ravens game, or the pattern of betting? And Houshmandzadeh joining the Ravens….does that neutralize the fact that Revis will see time?
Does the surprise showing of the Cleveland offense make them a sharp over bet (or a straight up winner, for that matter)?
The new rule that states the backfield referee must be ‘set’ before a play can be run….will the Colts suffer all season with this new rule change?
Does Dennis Dixon stand a chance running Pittsburgh’s offense against a good Atlanta defense?
Can Derek Anderson beat the spread (Cardinals -4) against Sam Bradford’s Rams?
Lot’s to consider. Let’s start with what NOT to look for:
1) What happened last year–don’t waste your time with this. Past performance is a poor measure of future results, especially against the spread. Remember the buddy you had in high school who still talks about the good ole days on the ball field and how easy it was to ‘bag’ the cheerleaders and blah blah blah? He still lives at home, doesn’t he? Sad. Don’t be that guy.
2) Injuries or starters that are out in Week One–the line was most likely set with these factors in mind. Don’t handicap your NFL betting twice….handicap your game with the understanding that lines take these things into consideration before hand.
3) Overs for the sake of betting the over—remember, the defense is always ahead of the offense when it comes to the NFL preseason carrying over to the regular season. When in doubt, look for a sharp under bet this week, for this reason.
What you should be looking for:
1) Surprises—will Detroit really lose double digit games AGAIN this year? Will they be equally horrible against the spread? Might they beat Chicago at Soldier Field? Look for the unexpected first, everything else second.
2) Weather—this should be an every week thing for you. By the way, hurricane season starts in Miami in November. Become your own Doppler radar when betting the NFL.
3) Second half overs—more points are scored in the fourth quarter than any other quarter. Where will the opportunities exist to cash in on some easy second half overs?
Every sports betting system should include some type of strategy that has been tested every year. Don’t test on the fly–you’ll learn the hard way. Rely on past data, like we have, to formulate your theory. Keep looking for unique opportunities and angles and play those angles once you are comfortable with what you have discovered.
We have opinions on every game during the first week of the season but only release our strongest opinions as our paid picks. Look for them in the coming days–they’re always guaranteed.