The Top Sports Betting Tipster Is At It Again.
What are the advantages of new betting sites?
How A Winning Bet Can Be a Bad Bet, and Why Winning Percentage Means Nothing
It may come as a shock to most punters, but did you know that you can bet on a winner and have it still be a bad bet? Or that you could have a winning percentage of more than 60% and still be a losing punter in the long term? In this article we look at the importance of looking for “value” in bets rather than simply looking for winners.
In our previous article about what is an odd we learnt that the prices offered by bookmakers represent the winning probability plus the bookmaker’s premium (the “vig”). But these prices are much more important that you may realise, and simply betting on teams who you believe will win may actually result in a loss at the end of a season. Lets look at an example to see how big winning percentages may not necessarily mean big profits.
Our punter bets 1 unit on 10 matches in a row, winning 7 and losing 3 for a winning percentage of 70%. Here are is overall results:
Match Stake Odds Result Profit/Loss Total Profit/Loss
1 1 1.2 win 0.2 0.2
2 1 1.5 win 0.5 0.7
3 1 1.6 loss -1 -0.3
4 1 1.8 win 0.8 0.5
5 1 1.15 win 0.15 0.65
6 1 1.3 win 0.3 0.95
7 1 1.5 loss -1 -0.05
8 1 1.25 loss -1 -1.05
9 1 1.3 win 0.3 -0.75
10 1 1.25 win 0.25 -0.5
So even with a very impressive 70% winning rate our punter loses half a unit over the course of his 10 bets. But how is that possible? If a tipster told you that they had a 70% winning percentage you usually wouldn’t be able to sign up to their service fast enough.
But this is where you learn the most important lesson of handicapping and betting, finding value in a price is the only thing that matters when punting. Successful punters will often skip over options the believe will win, and on some occasions bet against who they think may win a match because of value.
But what is value? It is something we hear often in relation to betting, particularly in horse racing when you often hear pundits claiming a runner is “great value” at their current price.”Value” is when the probability of an event occurring is greater than the price offered by a bookmaker.
Lets take a quick look at a market to see “value” in action. A bookmaker currently has a market of $1.95 for a home win, and $1.95 for an away win, giving an implied probability of 51% for each team. Using a statistical model and knowledge of the sport, our punter rates the home team a 60% chance of winning ($1.66), and the away team a 40% chance of winning ($2.50). In this scenario our punter would bet on the home team, as the current available price is greater than his rated price, providing “value”.
This also explains how our punter with the high winning percentage lost money over his 10 bets. Winning 70% of the time means that our punter would need to bet on teams priced at least $1.43 to win in the long term, however our punter’s average winning price was $1.36.
In an upcoming article we will look at how you can calculate whether a bet you are making is providing value, and the long term profits you can expect from making a bet. Also look through our range of analytics and handicapping articles to learn how you can develop your own models for a range of different markets and sports. And remember, be weary of tipsters claiming high winning percentages, its the long term profit that is really important for a punter.
Aren’t you tired of searching for the free magic system that is going to make you millions of betting sports as a career? It doesn’t exist. That’s a pipe dream. You are going to have to invest in sports betting systems of some sort that has been tested and proven and I suggest you start with the Sports Betting Champ. Don’t prolong the inevitable as most people do. Take action and make something of the investment you make.
When The is reviewed on the basis of cost, you will see that it is a sports betting system that is very cost-effective. When you review its’ cost compared to the costs of getting the same type of information elsewhere the difference will stand out. To get the same type of reliable information elsewhere you only have a few options and they are all quite expensive. The only truly reliable options are going to a professional sports handicapper (umm, people still do this?) or purchasing statistics sheets and using that information to determine picks (yeah, this won’t take you forever to figure out, lol). Both of these have downsides, the first of which is the cost and with the statistic sheets time also becomes a major downside. There are of course the same old unreliable sources, such as free picks on the Internet or out of the local paper, by trying a “free” system or using your old system that has never really worked.
First, let's start with The. It has a one time cost of just under $200 at the time of this article. Now that may seem like a lot of money, especially to the occasional sports bettor, but it is actually a small amount. For that investment, you get the sports betting system developed by, who has a Ph.D. in Statistics om Cornell University and has developed this system over many years with huge sample sizes of games. You can then use the system and its parameters to make picks that have won at a great percentage over years, even decades, not months. You also get free picks (daily)it emailed to you by, so if you choose not to run the system yourself, you can just use the picks that are emailed to you. So, basically you get a winning sports betting system and emailed picks, both for only one payment and both with no expiration and almost no time required if desired. Why do you think this system is so popular? Value. That’s why.
Now, let's move to the services of a professional sports handicappers. There are a lot of these types of services available, so the first thing you need to do is to spend a lot of time determining which handicapper is the one to go with. This could be easy, as they all seem to have great records and make tons of money, but you should follow up on some of the claims. So, after you determine who seems the most accurate about their claims you can then look at the costs. There records? All garbage. Documented? By who? Go ahead and fall for it. Personally, I would rather have a reference that I could refer back to daily and PROVE.
Do you remember when I said that just under $200 for The Sports Betting Champ System was a small amount? Well, now you will understand why. Most of these services charge at least $300 and some over $500 for one season of picks for one sport. Or, they will offer you one day of picks for $20 to $30 so you can try out their service. For this cost, you usually will get anywhere from 1 to 5 picks per day on the sport that you paid for. From the research that I have done, most of these services claim to win anywhere from 60% to 70% of their picks, with some claiming higher. For the cost of the service, you will need high winning percentages to cover the added cost of the service. Then, you will have to pay again for the next season and again if you want to bet on another sport.
The other method is to purchase statistics services and use their sheets to find picks. There are actually 2 downsides to following this method. The first downside is the same one as using sports handicappers. To get the detailed information from a reliable source will cost you about the same as using a handicapper. Although you do get information for more than one sport, you are still going to pay at least $300 for one year and up to $500 or more for premium services. Now for the 2nd downside. Time and a lot of it are needed to go through and analyze the information on the sheets. It is often overwhelming, as these are the same types of sheets the pros are using. Unless you are doing sports betting full time or if have been a sports bettor for a long time already, this is going to take some time. It will probably take you at least 4-5 hours to get a few picks. This is now something you will have to do every day and pay for every year.
I am not going to spend much time on free tips or using a personal system as most of these methods do not end well. If you want to win consistently and have sports betting to make you the type of money it is capable of, then you need to follow a consistent winning system. All three of the methods mentioned above have that potential, but you have to look at what you are getting compared to the costs needed to get results and also the amount of time you will have to put in to get those results.
As you can see, when the costs of The by are compared to the costs of other comparable services there is a clear winner. On cost alone, the sports betting system will save you money in just one season and these savings will continue season after season without any additional costs. This is in comparison to the handicappers and statistic services which will cost you more initially and then have ongoing costs season per season and sport per sport.
This all boils down to being as low risk as one could possibly get. Yes, there are people driving around in luxury cars that were purchased with winnings from this system. When I stopped thinking like a newbie cheap ass recreational lose-every-time sports bettor and really took the time to focus on something that had proven past results, I saw the light.
You will too.
Online Sportsbook Gambling and NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB, Betting Guide
Well NFL NHL NBA MLB Betting gladly brings you a complete guide to betting on any major sports in the U.S.
Learn the basics of betting over the internet, there are many bet types to choose from straights, parlays, teasers, monster teasers, futures, proposition bets, and much more.
When you bet on any major sport in the United States, you have to be sure that you have the right tools. Information like sports odds, injury reports, schedules, past and present score, and free picks are the most. All the information that you gather will just make you a better gambler, and if you are in the look for a new sportsbook to take your business, then we might be able to help you. Take a look at our sportsbook listings, we are sure that you won't be disappointed.
Free Sports Picks from Doc's Sports Service
NFL Football NCAA Football MLB Baseball NHL Hockey NCAA Basketball NBA Basketball
Tips for Betting on Your Own Successfully
1) Always be selective. Never bet on a large number of games--it will only hurt you in the long term;
2) Never bet or wager more than you can afford to lose;
3) If you do suffer a losing streak, never try to catch up all at once by doubling the size of your bets-instead, cut them. Successful gamblers let their winnings run while limiting their losses;
4) Avoid the dreaded Monday Night trap. Attempting to regain money lost over the weekend with a big-time Monday night play probably means more losses (and heartache) for you;
5) Subscribe to not one but several major newsletters in order to get all the statistics and information you will need to make more effective choices;
6) Also, subscribe to the top sports magazines in the field to learn even more;
7) Remember, also keep your emotions in check. Don't bet while chasing your dreams. Make sure you select the right sports service for you that will provide you the help you need to make high-percentage bets;
8) Always get the best number, shop lines between different sportsbooks, and
9) When betting on a game that involves your favorite hometown team (bettors are fans too) bet with your head, not your heart.
Football is in the midst of one of the most historic transformations in its history. As teams try to navigate through this Coronavirus pandemic world.
The lack of preseason football will be challenging for most teams especially those with rookie coaches like the browns and new offensive and defensive systems to be learned.
About Gambling Tips
The articles in Gambling Tips are intended to give the football bettor a better understanding of the ins and outs in football gambling. Whether you are a serious better, a casual bettor, or just want to know more about the world of football gambling, you should find these articles helpful. The road to success gambling is filled with pitfalls, some put there by the sportsbook, but most caused by the bettor himself. These articles will not only warn you about the pitfalls but will make you more knowledgeable so that when you do make your bets, you won't feel intimidated or confused by the gambling jargon they throw at you.
Strange But True
Reports mistakes some weekend bettors make and include a little test of your football betting knowledge.
Football Betting Primer
Basics of football betting, beginning with what you need to know first. Includes common terms used in football betting, with a full explanation of each term.
Everyone has encountered a scamdicapper either through the mail or advertising in newspapers or magazines. They are sports handicapping services that claim to be legitimate but are con men out to bilk the public of millions of dollars each year. See how diabolically clever they are and how to recognize and avoid them.
Can You Afford a Handicapping Service?
Shows why you'll have to bet big money if you use a handicapping service.
How to Get Along without a Handicapping Service?
You don't have to use a handicapping service to be a winner.
How to Increase Your Chances of Winning
10 Basic Guidelines from professional gamblers that will help you increase your chances of winning.
Using the Spread to Your Advantage
The spread reflects the betting public's perception of the strength of the two teams. It does not necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the two teams. This will show you how to recognize when the public's perception is off.
Choosing the Best Spread Possible
Shopping around for a half-point difference in the spread can mean a winning season instead of a losing one.
Where to Place Your Bets
Bookies should be considered like used car salesmen. They'll try to pull a few tricks on you.
Offshore and Online Sports Books
Offshore and Online sportsbooks are convenient and there are plenty to choose from. But, are they safe?
Parlays: Part One
To parlay or not to parlay. Are all parlays bad or just some of them?
Parlays: Part Two
The parlay or football card. The great ripoff.
You can also wager on categories like the top four and bottom 4 teams in certain leagues as well as a leading goal scorer in the Barclays Premier League, Npower League 1, Npower Championship, Npower League 2, Blue Square Premier League, Scottish Premier League, German Bundesliga, and the Spanish Primera. These non-traditional bets are part of the reason why some folks choose Bet365 over comparable sites that do not offer such bets. With the amount of additional propositional type bets that Bet365 offers, it is no wonder that they are one of the most well-respected sports betting sites around. Unfortunately for those from the US who are interested in Bet365, they are not able to offer their services to people residing in the United States. Almost every other country is able to bet on Bet365 though.
On Bet365 you can bet during matches live. The way it works is that you can bet on things like the over-under or the scoreline. Of course, as the match progresses and moves forward the odds change. For example, if a team is an underdog at the beginning of the match and is somehow winning by 2 goals late in the game, a bet on them will not yield as many winnings as it would if you would have made the bet prior to the match beginning. Live Betting is a great interactive way to make bets and is really fun to do while watching a game, especially if you are a fan of one of the teams
Sign-Up Bonus on Bet365
There is a 100% sign up bonus for new members. In order to be eligible for the bonus, you must make an initial deposit of at least 10 British Pounds and a maximum of 200 Pounds. In order to play with bonus money, a player must first play through all of the money in their initial deposit. In order to withdraw your bonus funds a player must play the money they deposited, plus the bonus money three times.
Debit/Credit Card-To deposit in this manner, the player simply has to link their credit or debit card number to their account on Bet365. There is no fee to make deposits from a credit or debit card and it takes almost no time to process the deposit. There is a minimum deposit requirement of at least 5 British Pounds and a maximum deposit limit that is 20000 British Pounds.
NETeller-This form of depositing is an e-wallet that is very similar to PayPal. To actually deposit you must link your NETeller account to your Bet365 account and then everything is simple from there and there is no processing time for your funds to show up. There is no fee to deposit through NETeller and the minimum deposit is 30 British Pounds and the maximum one can deposit is 20000 British Pounds.
Moneybookers-This is another e-wallet way of depositing money into your Bet365 account. In order to be able to deposit through this method your Moneybookers account email and the email, you supplied Bet365 must be identical. Once more there is no fee to deposit through Moneybookers and the funds show up instantly. The minimum deposit is 5 British Pounds and the maximum limit is 7000 British Pounds.
PayPal-PayPal is the most commonly accepted and most often used e-wallet around. It works just like NETeller and Moneybookers in that there is no fee to deposit in this method and your funds will show up immediately. The minimum amount you can deposit through PayPal are 10 British Pounds and the maximum limit is 5500 Pounds.
Click2Pay-Click2Pay is yet another e-wallet that Bet365 uses and it follows suit with the other e-wallets in that there are no fees and the money you deposit is there right away. The minimum you can deposit is 25 pounds and the maximum is 99999 Pounds.
Ukash-Those that wish to deposit through Ukash, which is almost identical to the other e-wallets, will see that there is no fee to deposit and your funds show up right away. The minimum that you can deposit is 1 Pound and the maximum, which is sort of low, is 500 Pounds.
Paysafecard-Paysafecards are like prepaid credit cards, you buy one for a certain amount and then use that card number and deposit your funds to your Bet365 account. There is no fee to use these cards and your funds show up right away. The minimum deposit you can make is 5 Pounds and the maximum stands at 800 Pounds.
Entropay-Entropay is a prepaid Visa card that works the same way as Paysafecards. The minimum deposit you may make is 10 Pounds and the maximum is 20000 Pounds.
Wire Transfer-Bet365 offers bank transfers that link your personal bank account to their Bet365 account and can deposit funds accordingly. There is no fee when using a Wire Transfer but it will take an estimated 3-10 banking days for your funds to show up.
Fast Bank Transfer-To use a Fast Bank Transfer you have to call Bet365 and receive a 13-digit Virtual Account Number (VAN). With the VAN you are then able to deposit funds accordingly. There is no fee for deposits over 300 Pounds and the minimum deposit amount is 1 Pound and the maximum is 99999 Pounds. Your money should show up in your Bet365 account in about 1 to 3 banking days, which is much better than the 3-10 it takes with a normal wire transfer.
Check/Cheque-You can even deposit funds into your account without a fee by mailing a check to Bet365. This is the longest time out of any deposits in that it takes 5-28 banking days for your funds to arrive at your account.
Categories: Sports Betting Champ, sports betting systems
Early in the season is one of the hardest times for NBA bettors, since it is not clear yet which teams will emerge as strong and which weak. In fact, many serious gamblers believe that the best move in these early days is to observe rather than bet. During this period, you should prepare by watching as many games as possible and paying close attention to the scoreboard in order to get a read on the spirit of the teams, i.e. which ones will rally when they are seriously behind and which will give up. Here are some of the other things to watch out for in the first months of the season:
- Crowd enthusiasm. This would impact on teams playing at home since they may play better to a hometown crowd cheering wildly for them. But this would be effective only early in the season as enthusiasm would wane and the hometown advantage would not mean much.
- Player injuries. Don’t just look at injuries for high-profile stars but at lower-key players who are actually important to the performance of the entire team roster. Remember that in early games teams tend to play without their superstars on the floor.
- Morphing teams whose performance may dramatically change over the course of the season. These changes often are not reflected in NBA power ratings, providing alert bettors with a great opportunity to ride some hot streaks.
- Scheduling Imbalances. These quirky schedules tend to happen early in the season, distorting ratings and creating teams that are undervalued and overvalued.
If this sounds likes a lot of work, keep in mind that serious bettors treat sports betting as a regular job and spend as much as seven days a week going through all the information that they can find, including game recaps, box scores and team updates from various sources.
March Madness is a high betting time of year. Every NCAA tournament game is televised and you can watch the first two rounds for free on the internet. Betting the NCAA basketball tournament has never been easier.
During the college basketball regular season you can find easy value in the underdogs, especially in the lesser followed conferences. There are over 300 teams in the top division in college basketball. Each team plays roughly 20 games in the regular season, some teams approach 30 games-and this is before their conference tournaments. The NCAA Tournament is a different story.
When betting the NCAA basketball tournament it is best to look for value in the favorites early in the tournament. Think about this for a second. The lesser-known colleges have gotten stronger. The competition is better. There have been tournaments in years passed with more upsets than would otherwise occur. The public stigma in NCAA basketball betting in today’s betting arena is the underdogs have just as good a chance as the favorites. The public loves the Cinderella story of the smaller school beating the big-time program.
Since the public perception regarding betting the tournament is that every team has a fighting chance, including the underdogs, the lines are set not on public perception, but on the most likely statistical outcome of each game. Use this to your advantage. More public betting dollars are wagered on the underdogs in this tournament than in the regular season. That makes the favorites more valuable. Sportsbooks know that public bettors are more likely to bet on an underdog in the NCAA tournament and they set their lines according to these public betting patterns.
The favorites are more valuable in the first two rounds than they are further along in the tournament. As the tournament goes on and there are fewer games to handicap, the lines become sharper and the value of the favorites decreases. That is not to say there is no value in the favored team but it does lessen deeper in the tournament.
Lines set between -3 and -5 cover more often than any other line. If you see balanced action on a game with this line, take the favorite. Likewise, if you see the underdog bringing in more money than the favorite, take the favorite. This might be the most enticing line in the NCAA tournament for a public bettor. They love jumping on the underdog here because they believe that if the game could end that close, there is a very good chance the underdog will cover or even win the game outright. Unfortunately for public bettors, as mentioned above, the favorite covers this line much more often than other lines. This is especially true in the first two rounds.
Betting the NCAA tournament is easy if you think outside the box a bit. Remember, the public loves the favorite, but when this tournament starts the public starts changing their betting patterns. Capitalize on this switch in mentality and look long and hard at betting the favorites early.
Betting The NBA Starts Right Here
It’s October, and that means that basketball is right around the corner. Here are some NBA betting tips to help you win your wagers throughout the NBA season.
1. Look for reasons to bet against the public teams. Certain teams always get treated like champions even when they don’t play like champions. The Lakers are a prime example of this theory. Yes, Kobe is a great player, but one great player isn’t enough of a reason to pay a premium when wagering.
2. Play the over/under for value. The totals wager is one where you can really get some value if you do your homework. Look for high scoring teams at home, teams with good shooting percentages, and teams that make a lot of threes. And, of course, look for teams that don’t play defense. Be careful with the overs early in the season, though, until the shooters really hit their stride and the defenses soften up.
3. Take a look at the player prop bets. This is another place to find some value, especially with a superstar player getting an unusually high or low number. Check the player’s average stats per game, and then take a look at how he has done against individual teams in the past. Make sure to be confident in your pick, however, because these wagers come with inflated juice.
4. Don’t forget about futures bets before the season begins. If you have a good line on how you think a team will fare, don’t be afraid to lay some wood on it. Make sure you bet money that you don’t mind having tied up for the duration of the season.
5. Do your homework. Scour injury reports, study the box scores, watch as many games as you can, and read the relevant websites, including the sites of the local papers of the teams you are following. Being a winning gambler is about exploiting tiny edges, and so the more you know, the more it may help you. Use caution though, because the people who set the lines will probably have even more information than you do.
6. Specialize. Pick a couple of teams that you can devote some time to follow closely, and a particular type of bet that you feel comfortable with, and try to get an advantage in this way. Keep it simple.
7. Consider the halftime lines. Watch the first half of a game that you’re wagering on, see what’s going on, who’s hot, who’s in foul trouble, etc., then check the second-half lines, and wager from a position of strength, if you feel that you are getting good value on your bet.
8. Always shop around for the best lines. The Internet makes this easy to do. Open a few accounts and do not overpay for a wager. A point here or there may not seem like much, but over the long term, it’s absolutely huge.
9. Be responsible. Don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose, and be sure to employ the principles of sound money management. Use a percentage of bankroll system whereby you bet the same small percentage of your total bankroll (say 1 percent) on each individual wager. This protects your downside while increasing the number of your wagers as your bankroll grows.
10. The most important decision you make as a gambler may be deciding which games NOT to bet on. Part of the advantage that you have as an individual gambler is the ability to pick and choose which games you want to bet on, and which ones to pass on.
11. Focus on match-ups when picking sides, position by position. Also, take a look at a team’s recent performance, and for instance, where it is on a road trip. If an east-coast team is at the end of a long road trip out west, they may be looking ahead to the trip home and not play as well as the other factors would suggest.
12. Pace yourself. The NBA is a marathon, not a sprint. Remember, it’s a long season, and there will be ups and downs. Try to go with the flow, and learn as much as you can as the season progresses. Hopefully, by the end, you will be up.
Well, hopefully, you are a little more prepared for the NBA season. Eighty-two games from now, you will have another year under your belt. But for now, have fun and good luck, and remember, it’s only a game.
These NBA Sports Betting Systems WORK. Use Them.
Betting basketball is the second most popular bet behind betting on football. In a season where every team plays 82 games, there are many opportunities for bettors to find incorrect lines and use those lines to their advantage. The general betting public forces lines to be set a certain way. That line isn’t always a ‘sharp’ line. There are even more opportunities during the playoffs to profit from lines that are influenced by public betting patterns.
In the NBA, certain situations make for better bets than others. If you seek out these instances, your odds of success in basketball betting is sure to increase.
On certain days, there are only a few basketball games on the slate. Of those few games, there may be one or two NBA games that will be televised nationally. If this is the case, you can be sure that most of the money bet in the NBA will be bet on the nationally televised games. Look at the line. Is the home team an underdog? It is well understood that NBA players give (at best) 70% effort during the course of the season, especially early in the season. They will however give maximum effort when they know all eyes will be on them. If you find an instance where most of the attention is being paid on the prime time game and the home team is an underdog, betting that underdog may be a good bet. If you are new to NBA basketball betting, start here.
Games That Are A Pick’em
What I mean by a pick’em is the point spread is set at 0. According to the sports book, both teams are evenly matched-so much so that there is no point spread for the game. Usually when there is a ‘pick’em’ game on the card, the public will over bet one of those teams. When this occurs, bet the other side. Remember, most people who bet on basketball bet the popular teams first, regardless of the situation. NBA basketball betting should not be difficult and this is an easy situation to exploit.
The First Half
If you have ever bet an NBA game, you know that the most intense action occurs in the second half. Most of that action takes place in the last two minutes. This is an opportunity to capitalize on weak first half lines set by sports books. First, find out what the line was set for the entire game. Was it a low point spread, meaning the sports book considers the outcome to be close? Is one team obviously stronger than the other, on paper at least? This looks like a situation where the underdog (or the team that is less popular in the eyes of the betting public) is a good bet for the first half. These teams usually come out strong, only to wear out in the second half.
Here’s the deal. We’re so excited about this new information that were giving one lucky shmuck the package immediately. No landing page. No pretty graphics. Just the straight up nuts & bolts.
The contents of this package include ten instant NFL sports betting systems that hit at 60% or over.
They are instant winners–meaning you wake up Sunday at about 12:00 noon. Get coffee, brush your teeth, and fire up the computer. open up the book, find any system of the ten that applies for that given day’s game, and plug in your winner. By 4 p.m., you’ve already collected your cash. Instant money–just add water. NFL sports betting systems that produce profits instantly, just they way we like it.
She's Also A Masseuse
The catch? Sign up for our free picks email service. That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less. No, we don’t spam the you-know-what out of you. That is counterproductive. Simply enter your name and email and the rest is history. One of you lucky SOB’s is going to win a package that is going to retail for $99. I want to charge double for it….
I have nothing else of substance to report, for now…. Sign up on our homepage, we’ll pick a winner, and the rest is history! 60% winners….and you’ll get 10 systems that you can play instantly. Betting the NFL has never been easier. It’s never been this cheap, either. Cheap as in FREE. That’s right. Don’t forget it.
What the hell are you waiting for?
Sports Betting Fact #1: These chicks are smoking hot.
So we are five weeks in and things may or may not have turned out the way you had hoped.
Have you been moosed yet? Did you lose or win by the hook? Backdoor cover? Will EVERY DAMN GAME go over?!?! Frustrating as it may be, there are some facts through five weeks that you may want to take a second look at before you place your next bet.
1. San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread so far this year. They have BYU next, who happens to be 1-4 ATS to date. What will give? Will the Aztecs remain undefeated ATS or will BYU snap out of it? Las Vegas continues to undervalue this team. Sure, the play not one, but two teams from New Mexico. Will the trend remain your friend?
2. New Mexico is 0-5 ATS, and they are 5-0 for the ‘over’. Can you say “correlated parlay”? Find a book that will accept this kind of bet, and you have yourself free money with the Lobos. This team is simply uncompetitive. With the 116th defense in the nation playing the 120th defense in the nation this week (they play New Mexico State), there will be plenty of good seats still available.
3. Washington State is 5-0 for the over; BYU is 5-0 for the under. Washington State plays Oregon this week. Yikes. They need to set the over/under for this one at 70. Anything less than 70 and I would hammer this over. Play the under at your own risk.
4. Arizona has the 3rd ranked scoring defense in the nation to date. They have the 2nd ranked defense in yards per game, and they are 4th in the nation against the pass. They get Oregon State at home this week. OSU has the 99th ranked offense in the nation. They have the 105th defense. OSU has won 4 in a row in Arizona. The game will be sold out.
5. The state of Ohio has some of the worst offensive football you will ever see in Division I-A collegiate ball. I call out the MAC in particular. There are 120 Division I-A teams. Here are the rankings in total yards per game from some of the Ohio Schools:
A) Miami (Ohio) 100th
B) Bowling Green 106th
C) Ohio 113th
D) Toledo 114th
E) Kent State 115th
F) Akron 117th
That’s gross. There are only two other I-A teams (Ohio State, Cincinnati) in the state. Bet the over at your own risk. Bet that conference at your own risk.
6. Nevada is #1 in the nation in converting 3rd downs into 1st downs, hitting at a 62.3% clip. The next four are Stanford (57.8), South Carolina (55.3), Indiana (54.7) & Michigan (54.1).
7. Boise State may boast a pretty high octane offense, but they have the #1 ranked defense, giving up only 223.5 yards per game.
8. Wisconsin may be 4-1 on the year, but they are 1-4 ATS.
9. Utah is both 4-0 on the year and 4-0 ATS.
10. Troy has the sixth best passing attack in the nation; Idaho is seventh. Bet you didn’t have that on your 2010 futures list.
11. Air Force has the nations best running game; Army comes in at 9th and Navy comes in at 11th. We appreciate all that ground work you do, guys.
Take this sports betting information for what it’s worth. Many betting opportunities will arise from this information. I still can’t believe how awful the MAC conference is statistically. Then again, I continue to exploit that conference financially so what do I care. Hope you learned something today.
Gimme the favorite, please
Here’s the thing….. I use one of the best statistical systems for picking winners in the NFL and NBA, as well as NCAA Football so that is a formula that I am going to stick to. But there are some other strategies, and there is more key information that can help the everyday player.
One of the most popular strategies and one that has risen in popularity in the last 10 years is called ‘Betting Against the Public.’ This is a theory that becomes fairly self-evident to anyone who has ever taken action. You see the calls or clicks coming in on one side of a game and you almost start to think that people must have a copy of tomorrow’s newspaper. And your first reaction is… my God, I’m going to get crushed!
But you have patience and you keep your cool and ‘whaddaya know’ – more often than not you WIN those kinds of games. The reason? Well it is the same reason casinos or bookies do not get busted by their players: the vast majority of people who bet do not have the first clue about sports betting. So they will bet on their favourite team, or the most popular team regardless of the spread.
That is why casinos have taken to dealing a ‘double line,’ one for their sharp players and one for the so-called ‘squares.’ That is something I will get into later but for right now lets talk about how you can profit from this sports betting strategy of betting against the public. One of the most legendary (and outlandish) sports handicappers of all-time, Stu Feiner, recently said in an interview, “My strategy is based all on going against public opinion. Anybody who says they have a proven handicapping strategy is telling ‘porky pies’. The only thing that works is going against the public.”
Now obviously I disagree with Stu’s overall assessment because he does not address the usefulness of statistics and historical data that really matter. But if you are talking about the vast majority of sports handicappers that make it up as they go along, Stu is dead on.
The problem then becomes how do you know where the money is going? Well, maybe you know someone who works at one of the premier offshore books? But chances are that is not likely. The ‘betting trends’ function on Sportsbook.com’s website is a great gauge for where the public money goes–that is where you want to start your research.
Is simply fading the public a profitable sports betting system in and of itself? Not necessarily. But it is a great start, you just need to handicap backwards from there.
The New York Yankees travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays this evening. CC Sabathia will start for the Yankees and Kyle Drabek gets the nod for the Blue Jays.
As a team this season, the Yankees are batting .267 while the Blue Jays come in at .248. Sabathia has won three straight against Toronto. He is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA at Rogers Centre. Kyle Drabek has never faced the Yankees–and this works to the Blue Jays advantage tonight.
Drabek will face a Yankees team that has lost five of their last six games. Offensively, the Yankee bats are ice cold right now, and not producing runs anywhere near level they have become accustomed to. They’ve scored only 25 runs in their last six games, an exercise in futility. They also know that when CC is on the mound, they need not score many runs for a victory.
New York has had struggles this season and in the past with pitchers that they’ve never faced before, so Drabek should be able to limit the Yankees production in this game.
While we expect this to be a low scoring affair, we believe the correct play is on the Blue Jays run line.
Take the Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-105).