Posts Tagged ‘nfl betting’

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She's Also A Masseuse

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Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - October 6, 2010 at 9:39 pm

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Betting The NFL–Sports Betting Systems For Week One Of The Regular Season

sports betting systems for week one

She's naked. Promise.

You have to handicap the NFL regular season much different than the preseason–you should know this already.  Starters start and play the whole game, not just quarters or halves.  The effort level of those starters is elevated, to an extent.  Crowds become a factor.  Refs have ironed out their kinks with the new rule changes.  Adapt to the changes and you’ll make some money.  But what do I look for?

What we will be looking for as Week One approaches:

How does the return of Revis affect the Jets/Ravens game, or the pattern of betting?  And Houshmandzadeh joining the Ravens….does that neutralize the fact that Revis will see time?

Does the surprise showing of the Cleveland offense make them a sharp over bet (or a straight up winner, for that matter)?

The new rule that states the backfield referee must be ‘set’ before a play can be run….will the Colts suffer all season with this new rule change?

Does Dennis Dixon stand a chance running Pittsburgh’s offense against a good Atlanta defense?

Can Derek Anderson beat the spread (Cardinals -4) against Sam Bradford’s Rams?

Lot’s to consider.  Let’s start with what NOT to look for:

1) What happened last year–don’t waste your time with this.  Past performance is a poor measure of future results, especially against the spread.  Remember the buddy you had in high school who still talks about the good ole days on the ball field and how easy it was to ‘bag’ the cheerleaders and blah blah blah?  He still lives at home, doesn’t he?  Sad.  Don’t be that guy.

2) Injuries or starters that are out in Week One–the line was most likely set with these factors in mind.  Don’t handicap your NFL betting twice….handicap your game with the understanding that lines take these things into consideration before hand.

3) Overs for the sake of betting the over—remember, the defense is always ahead of the offense when it comes to the NFL preseason carrying over to the regular season.  When in doubt, look for a sharp under bet this week, for this reason.

What you should be looking for:

1) Surprises—will Detroit really lose double digit games AGAIN this year?  Will they be equally horrible against the spread?  Might they beat Chicago at Soldier Field?  Look for the unexpected first, everything else second.

2) Weather—this should be an every week thing for you.  By the way, hurricane season starts in Miami in November.  Become your own Doppler radar when betting the NFL.

3) Second half overs—more points are scored in the fourth quarter than any other quarter.  Where will the opportunities exist to cash in on some easy second half overs?

Every sports betting system should include some type of strategy that has been tested every year.  Don’t test on the fly–you’ll learn the hard way.  Rely on past data, like we have, to formulate your theory.  Keep looking for unique opportunities and angles and play those angles once you are comfortable with what you have discovered.

We have opinions on every game during the first week of the season but only release our strongest opinions as our paid picks.  Look for them in the coming days–they’re always guaranteed.

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - September 6, 2010 at 11:39 pm

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2010 NFL Preseason Week One Games–Tons Of Value Early

How Cute, Terrell

We never used to bet preseason NFL games.  We wouldn’t even bother checking the lines.  We would work feverishly at constructing regular season NFL betting systems up until the hour before the regular season kickoff.

Then, a funny thing occurred while applying the research we were conducting for the regular season lines to the preseason.  The statistics were overwhelmingly in our favor (in the preseason) for some NFL betting systems we had originally discovered for the regular season.  Strange, I know.

We went back and tested the sports betting systems for 20 years of NFL preseason games and the patterns we were seeing in early line setting was consistent with data we could manipulate in our favor.  Thus, our NFL preseason betting system was born.

There are certain factors that we always consider when betting preseason NFL games.  They are:

Home Field Advantage

Turf Teams vs. Grass Teams

Last Year’s Hype

Strength Of Reserves

Weather (Rain) Where Applicable

This is a short list, but there are quite a bit of conclusions to draw from each of those categories.  We could write full chapters on each variable, but that would bore even the most astute statistician in the room.  The bottom line on all of that is when searching for value in your number the aforementioned list should never be overlooked.

The first NFL preseason game in 2010 is Dallas vs. Cincinnati.  An interesting matchup, even if only interesting for one quarter.  T.O. and Ochocinco on the field together.  T.O.’s tumultuous past with the Cowboys.  Boy are the Bengals in for a surprise this season.  Terrell Owens simply cannot help himself.  I mean he is already bragging that he is the sole reason attendance has exploded at the Bengals training camp.  Poor Carson Palmer.  Hey, it looks good on paper.

Cinci -2.5

Dallas +2.5

This is a no play for us since it is being played on a neutral field.  Had this game been played in Dallas and the line stayed the same, we may have looked for some teaser options with some of the other (yet to be released) lines for NFL preseason week one betting.

There may be value in that line, but with just one game on the card we will wait patiently for the rest of the numbers to post.  If you bet during the NFL preseason, try and get in on the action early.  There will be plenty of soft lines that you will easily catch before the ‘airmoves’ take place.  Consider the strength of the reserves–they play the majority of the game in week one.

We favor point spread betting to totals when betting NFL preseason games, unless rain will be a factor.  It is harder to find value in the totals for the early preseason games because the first team plays infrequently.

If you are interested in our preseason NFL betting system, simply sign up on the right hand side of our site.  It is a high value NFL betting system that we have been using for almost a decade now.  Not only will you get the winning picks, you get the system with it.

Be the first to comment - What do you think?  Posted by admin - August 3, 2010 at 9:07 pm

Categories: Tips   Tags: , , ,