So we are five weeks in and things may or may not have turned out the way you had hoped.
Have you been moosed yet? Did you lose or win by the hook? Backdoor cover? Will EVERY DAMN GAME go over?!?! Frustrating as it may be, there are some facts through five weeks that you may want to take a second look at before you place your next bet.
1. San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread so far this year. They have BYU next, who happens to be 1-4 ATS to date. What will give? Will the Aztecs remain undefeated ATS or will BYU snap out of it? Las Vegas continues to undervalue this team. Sure, the play not one, but two teams from New Mexico. Will the trend remain your friend?
2. New Mexico is 0-5 ATS, and they are 5-0 for the ‘over’. Can you say “correlated parlay”? Find a book that will accept this kind of bet, and you have yourself free money with the Lobos. This team is simply uncompetitive. With the 116th defense in the nation playing the 120th defense in the nation this week (they play New Mexico State), there will be plenty of good seats still available.
3. Washington State is 5-0 for the over; BYU is 5-0 for the under. Washington State plays Oregon this week. Yikes. They need to set the over/under for this one at 70. Anything less than 70 and I would hammer this over. Play the under at your own risk.
4. Arizona has the 3rd ranked scoring defense in the nation to date. They have the 2nd ranked defense in yards per game, and they are 4th in the nation against the pass. They get Oregon State at home this week. OSU has the 99th ranked offense in the nation. They have the 105th defense. OSU has won 4 in a row in Arizona. The game will be sold out.
5. The state of Ohio has some of the worst offensive football you will ever see in Division I-A collegiate ball. I call out the MAC in particular. There are 120 Division I-A teams. Here are the rankings in total yards per game from some of the Ohio Schools:
A) Miami (Ohio) 100th
B) Bowling Green 106th
C) Ohio 113th
D) Toledo 114th
E) Kent State 115th
F) Akron 117th
That’s gross. There are only two other I-A teams (Ohio State, Cincinnati) in the state. Bet the over at your own risk. Bet that conference at your own risk.
6. Nevada is #1 in the nation in converting 3rd downs into 1st downs, hitting at a 62.3% clip. The next four are Stanford (57.8), South Carolina (55.3), Indiana (54.7) & Michigan (54.1).
7. Boise State may boast a pretty high octane offense, but they have the #1 ranked defense, giving up only 223.5 yards per game.
8. Wisconsin may be 4-1 on the year, but they are 1-4 ATS.
9. Utah is both 4-0 on the year and 4-0 ATS.
10. Troy has the sixth best passing attack in the nation; Idaho is seventh. Bet you didn’t have that on your 2010 futures list.
11. Air Force has the nations best running game; Army comes in at 9th and Navy comes in at 11th. We appreciate all that ground work you do, guys.
Take this sports betting information for what it’s worth. Many betting opportunities will arise from this information. I still can’t believe how awful the MAC conference is statistically. Then again, I continue to exploit that conference financially so what do I care. Hope you learned something today.