So we are five weeks in and things may or may not have turned out the way you had hoped.
Have you been moosed yet? Did you lose or win by the hook? Backdoor cover? Will EVERY DAMN GAME go over?!?! Frustrating as it may be, there are some facts through five weeks that you may want to take a second look at before you place your next bet.
1. San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread so far this year. They have BYU next, who happens to be 1-4 ATS to date. What will give? Will the Aztecs remain undefeated ATS or will BYU snap out of it? Las Vegas continues to undervalue this team. Sure, the play not one, but two teams from New Mexico. Will the trend remain your friend?
2. New Mexico is 0-5 ATS, and they are 5-0 for the ‘over’. Can you say “correlated parlay”? Find a book that will accept this kind of bet, and you have yourself free money with the Lobos. This team is simply uncompetitive. With the 116th defense in the nation playing the 120th defense in the nation this week (they play New Mexico State), there will be plenty of good seats still available.
3. Washington State is 5-0 for the over; BYU is 5-0 for the under. Washington State plays Oregon this week. Yikes. They need to set the over/under for this one at 70. Anything less than 70 and I would hammer this over. Play the under at your own risk.
4. Arizona has the 3rd ranked scoring defense in the nation to date. They have the 2nd ranked defense in yards per game, and they are 4th in the nation against the pass. They get Oregon State at home this week. OSU has the 99th ranked offense in the nation. They have the 105th defense. OSU has won 4 in a row in Arizona. The game will be sold out.
5. The state of Ohio has some of the worst offensive football you will ever see in Division I-A collegiate ball. I call out the MAC in particular. There are 120 Division I-A teams. Here are the rankings in total yards per game from some of the Ohio Schools:
A) Miami (Ohio) 100th
B) Bowling Green 106th
C) Ohio 113th
D) Toledo 114th
E) Kent State 115th
F) Akron 117th
That’s gross. There are only two other I-A teams (Ohio State, Cincinnati) in the state. Bet the over at your own risk. Bet that conference at your own risk.
6. Nevada is #1 in the nation in converting 3rd downs into 1st downs, hitting at a 62.3% clip. The next four are Stanford (57.8), South Carolina (55.3), Indiana (54.7) & Michigan (54.1).
7. Boise State may boast a pretty high octane offense, but they have the #1 ranked defense, giving up only 223.5 yards per game.
8. Wisconsin may be 4-1 on the year, but they are 1-4 ATS.
9. Utah is both 4-0 on the year and 4-0 ATS.
10. Troy has the sixth best passing attack in the nation; Idaho is seventh. Bet you didn’t have that on your 2010 futures list.
11. Air Force has the nations best running game; Army comes in at 9th and Navy comes in at 11th. We appreciate all that ground work you do, guys.
Take this sports betting information for what it’s worth. Many betting opportunities will arise from this information. I still can’t believe how awful the MAC conference is statistically. Then again, I continue to exploit that conference financially so what do I care. Hope you learned something today.
Middling is a word you’ll often hear when discussing sports wagering with , but what does it mean? Middling games one of the most effective ways to make money with sports betting (if you are sharp enough to find the opportunity and capitalize on it).
Below is an example of the art of :
On college football Saturday there is a game featuring The Ohio State Buckeyes versus the Cincinnati Bearcats. The game started with the Buckeyes as a 7 point favorite. That is an essential number in football because most touchdowns lead to 7 points for the team which scored that touchdown, therefore you see that number more frequently than other numbers. There is nothing here out of the ordinary to speak of (yet). As the game approaches, we start seeing some significant line movements, (and this may come as a surprise) but this occurs in college football games quite regularly, as there are tons of college football games to bet on every Saturday. Significant line movements happen for any number of reasons–the line for games is set early in the week and the game is played on Saturday so a lot can transpire between the two teams within that time frame.
All of sudden, The Ohio State Buckeyes find themselves favored by 10.5 points while they opened up at -7. What makes this stand out is that the spread for this game has increased by three and a half points. Three is the second magic number in college football betting (and in NFL betting as well). Always remember 7 and 3, and you will soon have a better understanding of what middling really means.
So, you’re a sharp bettor and you bet on the Buckeyes -7, but now the spread has improved to 10.5 – how would it affect you if you now placed a bet on Cincinnati +10.5? Since your will require you to bet $110 to win $100, you will eliminate the juice you pay for one. The bigger picture here is where this game ends up in the final score. Since you now have two bets on both sides of this same game, you have an opportunity to ‘middle’ the game and win twice. If the final score is Ohio State 28 Cincinnati 20, you have landed in the middle of the point spread and won big.
Since a large number of games each year tend to land on seven as the final spread, there is a high probability that you could win both bets on this game even if you took Cincinnati at +8.5 which would have been the likely third line movement for this game (assuming the spread moves in half point intervals) . You got them at +10.5 though, increasing the probability (substantially)that you would end up middling the game and cash both tickets.
You now have provided yourself with a wonderful chance to win the two wagers by using –by middling. This game has to end with a difference between 7 and 10 points for you to win both bets. These types of chances do not usually occur when there are only a few games that day, but on football Saturday for college football the opportunities arise more frequently than any other sport.
An effective way to make the most of this (not being able to predict line movements) would be to wager the favorite earlier (such as when the line opens up) and the underdogs later in the week because the majority of the cash is likely to be bet on the favorite. You have to suspect that you have an edge when you see an opening line that looks soft. This is where your handicapping skills will really drive your profits since the middling technique won’t work if you don’t have an edge. Start using these ‘middling’ methods to decrease associated risk and improve the possibility of a big win and you will generate much more income betting sports this year.