Here’s the thing….. I use one of the best statistical systems for picking winners in the NFL and NBA, as well as NCAA Football so that is a formula that I am going to stick to. But there are some other strategies, and there is more key information that can help the everyday player.
One of the most popular strategies and one that has risen in popularity in the last 10 years is called ‘Betting Against the Public.’ This is a theory that becomes fairly self-evident to anyone who has ever taken action. You see the calls or clicks coming in on one side of a game and you almost start to think that people must have a copy of tomorrow’s newspaper. And your first reaction is… my God, I’m going to get crushed!
But you have patience and you keep your cool and ‘whaddaya know’ – more often than not you WIN those kinds of games. The reason? Well it is the same reason casinos or bookies do not get busted by their players: the vast majority of people who bet do not have the first clue about sports betting. So they will bet on their favourite team, or the most popular team regardless of the spread.
That is why casinos have taken to dealing a ‘double line,’ one for their sharp players and one for the so-called ‘squares.’ That is something I will get into later but for right now lets talk about how you can profit from this sports betting strategy of betting against the public. One of the most legendary (and outlandish) sports handicappers of all-time, Stu Feiner, recently said in an interview, “My strategy is based all on going against public opinion. Anybody who says they have a proven handicapping strategy is telling ‘porky pies’. The only thing that works is going against the public.”
Now obviously I disagree with Stu’s overall assessment because he does not address the usefulness of statistics and historical data that really matter. But if you are talking about the vast majority of sports handicappers that make it up as they go along, Stu is dead on.
The problem then becomes how do you know where the money is going? Well, maybe you know someone who works at one of the premier offshore books? But chances are that is not likely. The ‘betting trends’ function on Sportsbook.com’s website is a great gauge for where the public money goes–that is where you want to start your research.
Is simply fading the public a profitable sports betting system in and of itself? Not necessarily. But it is a great start, you just need to handicap backwards from there.