Early in the season is one of the hardest times for NBA bettors, since it is not clear yet which teams will emerge as strong and which weak. In fact, many serious gamblers believe that the best move in these early days is to observe rather than bet. During this period, you should prepare by watching as many games as possible and paying close attention to the scoreboard in order to get a read on the spirit of the teams, i.e. which ones will rally when they are seriously behind and which will give up. Here are some of the other things to watch out for in the first months of the season:
- Crowd enthusiasm. This would impact on teams playing at home since they may play better to a hometown crowd cheering wildly for them. But this would be effective only early in the season as enthusiasm would wane and the hometown advantage would not mean much.
- Player injuries. Don’t just look at injuries for high-profile stars but at lower-key players who are actually important to the performance of the entire team roster. Remember that in early games teams tend to play without their superstars on the floor.
- Morphing teams whose performance may dramatically change over the course of the season. These changes often are not reflected in NBA power ratings, providing alert bettors with a great opportunity to ride some hot streaks.
- Scheduling Imbalances. These quirky schedules tend to happen early in the season, distorting ratings and creating teams that are undervalued and overvalued.
If this sound likes a lot of work, keep in mind that serious bettors treat sports betting as a regular job and spend as much as seven days a week going through all the information that they can find, including game recaps, box scores and team updates from various sources.
March Madness is a high betting time of year. Every NCAA tournament game is televised and you can watch the first two rounds for free on the internet. Betting the NCAA basketball tournament has never been easier.
During the college basketball regular season you can find easy value in the underdogs, especially in the lesser followed conferences. There are over 300 teams in the top division in college basketball. Each team plays roughly 20 games in the regular season, some teams approach 30 games-and this is before their conference tournaments. The NCAA Tournament is a different story.
When betting the NCAA basketball tournament it is best to look for value in the favorites early in the tournament. Think about this for a second. The lesser known colleges have gotten stronger. The competition is better. There have been tournaments in years passed with more upsets than would otherwise occur. The public stigma in NCAA basketball betting in today’s betting arena is the underdogs have just as good a chance as the favorites. The public loves the Cinderella story of the smaller school beating the big time program.
Since the public perception regarding betting the tournament is that every team has a fighting chance, including the underdogs, the lines are set not on public perception, but on the most likely statistical outcome of each game. Use this to your advantage. More public betting dollars are wagered on the underdogs in this tournament than in the regular season. That makes the favorites more valuable. Sports books know that public bettors are more likely to bet on an underdog in the NCAA tournament and they set their lines according to these public betting patterns.
The favorites are more valuable in the first two rounds than they are further along in the tournament. As the tournament goes on and there are fewer games to handicap, the lines become sharper and the value of the favorites decreases. That is not to say there is no value in the favored team but it does lessen deeper in the tournament.
Lines set between -3 and -5 cover more often than any other line. If you see balanced action on a game with this line, take the favorite. Likewise, if you see the underdog bringing in more money than the favorite, take the favorite. This might be the most enticing line in the NCAA tournament for a public bettor. They love jumping on the underdog here because they believe that if the game could end that close, there is a very good chance the underdog will cover or even win the game outright. Unfortunately for public bettors, as mentioned above, the favorite covers this line much more often than other lines. This is especially true in the first two rounds.
Betting the NCAA tournament is easy if you think outside the box a bit. Remember, the public loves the favorite, but when this tournament starts the public starts changing their betting patterns. Capitalize on this switch in mentality and look long and hard at betting the favorites early.
It’s October, and that means that basketball is right around the corner. Here are some NBA betting tips to help you win your wagers throughout the NBA season.
1. Look for reasons to bet against the public teams. Certain teams always get treated like champions even when they don’t play like champions. The Lakers are a prime example of this theory. Yes, Kobe is a great player, but one great player isn’t enough of a reason to pay a premium when wagering.
2. Play the over/under for value. The totals wager is one where you can really get some value if you do your homework. Look for high scoring teams at home, teams with good shooting percentages and teams that make a lot of threes. And, of course, look for teams that don’t play defense. Be careful with the overs early in the season, though, until the shooters really hit their stride and the defenses soften up.
3. Take a look at the player prop bets. This is another place to find some value, especially with a superstar player getting an unusually high or low number. Check the player’s average stats per game, and then take a look at how he has done against individual teams in the past. Make sure to be confident in your pick however, because these wagers come with inflated juice.
4. Don’t forget about futures bets before the season begins. If you have a good line on how you think a team will fare, don’t be afraid to lay some wood on it. Make sure you bet money that you don’t mind having tied up for the duration of the season.
5. Do your homework. Scour injury reports, study the box scores, watch as many games as you can and read the relevant websites, including the sites of the local papers of the teams you are following. Being a winning gambler is about exploiting tiny edges, and so the more you know, the more it may help you. Use caution though, because the people who set the lines will probably have even more information than you do.
6. Specialize. Pick a couple of teams that you can devote some time to follow closely, and a particular type of bet that you feel comfortable with, and try to get an advantage in this way. Keep it simple.
7. Consider the halftime lines. Watch the first half of a game that you’re wagering on, see what’s going on, who’s hot, who’s in foul trouble, etc., then check the second-half lines, and wager from a position of strength, if you feel that you are getting good value on your bet.
8. Always shop around for the best lines. The Internet makes this easy to do. Open a few accounts and do not overpay for a wager. A point here or there may not seem like much, but over the long term, it’s absolutely huge.
9. Be responsible. Don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose, and be sure to employ the principles of sound money management. Use a percentage of bankroll system whereby you bet the same small percentage of your total bankroll (say 1 percent) on each individual wager. This protects your downside while increasing the amount of your wagers as your bankroll grows.
10. The most important decision you make as a gambler may be deciding which games NOT to bet on. Part of the advantage that you have as an individual gambler is the ability to pick and choose which games you want to bet on, and which ones to pass on.
11. Focus on match-ups when picking sides, position by position. Also, take a look at a team’s recent performance, and for instance, where it is on a road trip. If an east-coast team is at the end of a long road trip out west, they may be looking ahead to the trip home and not play as well as the other factors would suggest.
12. Pace yourself. The NBA is a marathon, not a sprint. Remember, it’s a long season, and there will be ups and downs. Try to go with the flow, and learn as much as you can as the season progresses. Hopefully, by the end, you will be up.
Well, hopefully you are a little more prepared for the NBA season. Eighty-two games from now, you will have another year under your belt. But for now, have fun and good luck, and remember, it’s only a game.
Betting basketball is the second most popular bet behind betting on football. In a season where every team plays 82 games, there are many opportunities for bettors to find incorrect lines and use those lines to their advantage. The general betting public forces lines to be set a certain way. That line isn’t always a ‘sharp’ line. There are even more opportunities during the playoffs to profit from lines that are influenced by public betting patterns.
In the NBA, certain situations make for better bets than others. If you seek out these instances, your odds of success in basketball betting is sure to increase.
On certain days, there are only a few basketball games on the slate. Of those few games, there may be one or two NBA games that will be televised nationally. If this is the case, you can be sure that most of the money bet in the NBA will be bet on the nationally televised games. Look at the line. Is the home team an underdog? It is well understood that NBA players give (at best) 70% effort during the course of the season, especially early in the season. They will however give maximum effort when they know all eyes will be on them. If you find an instance where most of the attention is being paid on the prime time game and the home team is an underdog, betting that underdog may be a good bet. If you are new to NBA basketball betting, start here.
Games That Are A Pick’em
What I mean by a pick’em is the point spread is set at 0. According to the sports book, both teams are evenly matched-so much so that there is no point spread for the game. Usually when there is a ‘pick’em’ game on the card, the public will over bet one of those teams. When this occurs, bet the other side. Remember, most people who bet on basketball bet the popular teams first, regardless of the situation. NBA basketball betting should not be difficult and this is an easy situation to exploit.
The First Half
If you have ever bet an NBA game, you know that the most intense action occurs in the second half. Most of that action takes place in the last two minutes. This is an opportunity to capitalize on weak first half lines set by sports books. First, find out what the line was set for the entire game. Was it a low point spread, meaning the sports book considers the outcome to be close? Is one team obviously stronger than the other, on paper at least? This looks like a situation where the underdog (or the team that is less popular in the eyes of the betting public) is a good bet for the first half. These teams usually come out strong, only to wear out in the second half.
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What the hell are you waiting for?
So we are five weeks in and things may or may not have turned out the way you had hoped.
Have you been moosed yet? Did you lose or win by the hook? Backdoor cover? Will EVERY DAMN GAME go over?!?! Frustrating as it may be, there are some facts through five weeks that you may want to take a second look at before you place your next bet.
1. San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread so far this year. They have BYU next, who happens to be 1-4 ATS to date. What will give? Will the Aztecs remain undefeated ATS or will BYU snap out of it? Las Vegas continues to undervalue this team. Sure, the play not one, but two teams from New Mexico. Will the trend remain your friend?
2. New Mexico is 0-5 ATS, and they are 5-0 for the ‘over’. Can you say “correlated parlay”? Find a book that will accept this kind of bet, and you have yourself free money with the Lobos. This team is simply uncompetitive. With the 116th defense in the nation playing the 120th defense in the nation this week (they play New Mexico State), there will be plenty of good seats still available.
3. Washington State is 5-0 for the over; BYU is 5-0 for the under. Washington State plays Oregon this week. Yikes. They need to set the over/under for this one at 70. Anything less than 70 and I would hammer this over. Play the under at your own risk.
4. Arizona has the 3rd ranked scoring defense in the nation to date. They have the 2nd ranked defense in yards per game, and they are 4th in the nation against the pass. They get Oregon State at home this week. OSU has the 99th ranked offense in the nation. They have the 105th defense. OSU has won 4 in a row in Arizona. The game will be sold out.
5. The state of Ohio has some of the worst offensive football you will ever see in Division I-A collegiate ball. I call out the MAC in particular. There are 120 Division I-A teams. Here are the rankings in total yards per game from some of the Ohio Schools:
A) Miami (Ohio) 100th
B) Bowling Green 106th
C) Ohio 113th
D) Toledo 114th
E) Kent State 115th
F) Akron 117th
That’s gross. There are only two other I-A teams (Ohio State, Cincinnati) in the state. Bet the over at your own risk. Bet that conference at your own risk.
6. Nevada is #1 in the nation in converting 3rd downs into 1st downs, hitting at a 62.3% clip. The next four are Stanford (57.8), South Carolina (55.3), Indiana (54.7) & Michigan (54.1).
7. Boise State may boast a pretty high octane offense, but they have the #1 ranked defense, giving up only 223.5 yards per game.
8. Wisconsin may be 4-1 on the year, but they are 1-4 ATS.
9. Utah is both 4-0 on the year and 4-0 ATS.
10. Troy has the sixth best passing attack in the nation; Idaho is seventh. Bet you didn’t have that on your 2010 futures list.
11. Air Force has the nations best running game; Army comes in at 9th and Navy comes in at 11th. We appreciate all that ground work you do, guys.
Take this sports betting information for what it’s worth. Many betting opportunities will arise from this information. I still can’t believe how awful the MAC conference is statistically. Then again, I continue to exploit that conference financially so what do I care. Hope you learned something today.
Here’s the thing….. I use one of the best statistical systems for picking winners in the NFL and NBA, as well as NCAA Football so that is a formula that I am going to stick to. But there are some other strategies, and there is more key information that can help the everyday player.
One of the most popular strategies and one that has risen in popularity in the last 10 years is called ‘Betting Against the Public.’ This is a theory that becomes fairly self-evident to anyone who has ever taken action. You see the calls or clicks coming in on one side of a game and you almost start to think that people must have a copy of tomorrow’s newspaper. And your first reaction is… my God, I’m going to get crushed!
But you have patience and you keep your cool and ‘whaddaya know’ – more often than not you WIN those kinds of games. The reason? Well it is the same reason casinos or bookies do not get busted by their players: the vast majority of people who bet do not have the first clue about sports betting. So they will bet on their favourite team, or the most popular team regardless of the spread.
That is why casinos have taken to dealing a ‘double line,’ one for their sharp players and one for the so-called ‘squares.’ That is something I will get into later but for right now lets talk about how you can profit from this sports betting strategy of betting against the public. One of the most legendary (and outlandish) sports handicappers of all-time, Stu Feiner, recently said in an interview, “My strategy is based all on going against public opinion. Anybody who says they have a proven handicapping strategy is telling ‘porky pies’. The only thing that works is going against the public.”
Now obviously I disagree with Stu’s overall assessment because he does not address the usefulness of statistics and historical data that really matter. But if you are talking about the vast majority of sports handicappers that make it up as they go along, Stu is dead on.
The problem then becomes how do you know where the money is going? Well, maybe you know someone who works at one of the premier offshore books? But chances are that is not likely. The ‘betting trends’ function on Sportsbook.com’s website is a great gauge for where the public money goes–that is where you want to start your research.
Is simply fading the public a profitable sports betting system in and of itself? Not necessarily. But it is a great start, you just need to handicap backwards from there.
The New York Yankees travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays this evening. CC Sabathia will start for the Yankees and Kyle Drabek gets the nod for the Blue Jays.
As a team this season, the Yankees are batting .267 while the Blue Jays come in at .248. Sabathia has won three straight against Toronto. He is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA at Rogers Centre. Kyle Drabek has never faced the Yankees–and this works to the Blue Jays advantage tonight.
Drabek will face a Yankees team that has lost five of their last six games. Offensively, the Yankee bats are ice cold right now, and not producing runs anywhere near level they have become accustomed to. They’ve scored only 25 runs in their last six games, an exercise in futility. They also know that when CC is on the mound, they need not score many runs for a victory.
New York has had struggles this season and in the past with pitchers that they’ve never faced before, so Drabek should be able to limit the Yankees production in this game.
While we expect this to be a low scoring affair, we believe the correct play is on the Blue Jays run line.
Take the Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-105).
Admit it. You’ve done it already.
You got moosed this weekend and it pissed you off so much that you blatantly threw another $200 or so on a team and a game you should probably never have an interest in in the first place.
In my non professional betting career, I have lost many a remote following that same lame brain bet chasing system-not to mention the money. As a professional of over 13 years now, I have learned not only to cut my losses, but to never watch the game in the first place. That’s a whole other topic in and of itself.
So you chased the bad beat and wouldn’t you know it, you lost that next bet too. Now you want to break something expensive. I say, let it go. The bet, I mean. Hey, if it destroying that beautiful brass statue in your indoor courtyard prevents you from chasing the next bet, break it. Chasing bets is the direct path to sports betting hell. It is guaranteed to bankrupt you and cause you more grief than you should have to deal with. Trust me–I’ve more than learned my lesson doing it.
Looking at your bankroll in sports betting as something that will grow over a long period of time with ups and downs along the way should deter you from chasing bets. What stock doesn’t have a down day? Surely your 401k has dipped in the past. Do you watch both in real time all the time? Of course not. Not watching the game you just bet on in real time is starting to sound pretty smart, isn’t it?
There are tons of chase betting systems in existence, but the worst type of chase bet is chasing a bad loss with another bad loss. This only complicates things even more. If you are simply throwing money on top of lost money to try and get back what you feel was ‘taken’ from you it’s probably not coming back the second time around either. Cut your losses. There isn’t a chase betting system on the planet that calls for doubling down blindly.
Remember the basics–solid handicapping, fundamental mathematics, money discipline. These sports betting systems are tried and true.