Here’s the thing….. I use one of the best statistical systems for picking winners in the NFL and NBA, as well as NCAA Football so that is a formula that I am going to stick to. But there are some other strategies, and there is more key information that can help the everyday player.
One of the most popular strategies and one that has risen in popularity in the last 10 years is called ‘Betting Against the Public.’ This is a theory that becomes fairly self-evident to anyone who has ever taken action. You see the calls or clicks coming in on one side of a game and you almost start to think that people must have a copy of tomorrow’s newspaper. And your first reaction is… my God, I’m going to get crushed!
But you have patience and you keep your cool and ‘whaddaya know’ – more often than not you WIN those kinds of games. The reason? Well it is the same reason casinos or bookies do not get busted by their players: the vast majority of people who bet do not have the first clue about sports betting. So they will bet on their favourite team, or the most popular team regardless of the spread.
That is why casinos have taken to dealing a ‘double line,’ one for their sharp players and one for the so-called ‘squares.’ That is something I will get into later but for right now lets talk about how you can profit from this sports betting strategy of betting against the public. One of the most legendary (and outlandish) sports handicappers of all-time, Stu Feiner, recently said in an interview, “My strategy is based all on going against public opinion. Anybody who says they have a proven handicapping strategy is telling ‘porky pies’. The only thing that works is going against the public.”
Now obviously I disagree with Stu’s overall assessment because he does not address the usefulness of statistics and historical data that really matter. But if you are talking about the vast majority of sports handicappers that make it up as they go along, Stu is dead on.
The problem then becomes how do you know where the money is going? Well, maybe you know someone who works at one of the premier offshore books? But chances are that is not likely. The ‘betting trends’ function on Sportsbook.com’s website is a great gauge for where the public money goes–that is where you want to start your research.
Is simply fading the public a profitable sports betting system in and of itself? Not necessarily. But it is a great start, you just need to handicap backwards from there.
The New York Yankees travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays this evening. CC Sabathia will start for the Yankees and Kyle Drabek gets the nod for the Blue Jays.
As a team this season, the Yankees are batting .267 while the Blue Jays come in at .248. Sabathia has won three straight against Toronto. He is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA at Rogers Centre. Kyle Drabek has never faced the Yankees–and this works to the Blue Jays advantage tonight.
Drabek will face a Yankees team that has lost five of their last six games. Offensively, the Yankee bats are ice cold right now, and not producing runs anywhere near level they have become accustomed to. They’ve scored only 25 runs in their last six games, an exercise in futility. They also know that when CC is on the mound, they need not score many runs for a victory.
New York has had struggles this season and in the past with pitchers that they’ve never faced before, so Drabek should be able to limit the Yankees production in this game.
While we expect this to be a low scoring affair, we believe the correct play is on the Blue Jays run line.
Take the Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-105).
Admit it. You’ve done it already.
You got moosed this weekend and it pissed you off so much that you blatantly threw another $200 or so on a team and a game you should probably never have an interest in in the first place.
In my non professional betting career, I have lost many a remote following that same lame brain bet chasing system-not to mention the money. As a professional of over 13 years now, I have learned not only to cut my losses, but to never watch the game in the first place. That’s a whole other topic in and of itself.
So you chased the bad beat and wouldn’t you know it, you lost that next bet too. Now you want to break something expensive. I say, let it go. The bet, I mean. Hey, if it destroying that beautiful brass statue in your indoor courtyard prevents you from chasing the next bet, break it. Chasing bets is the direct path to sports betting hell. It is guaranteed to bankrupt you and cause you more grief than you should have to deal with. Trust me–I’ve more than learned my lesson doing it.
Looking at your bankroll in sports betting as something that will grow over a long period of time with ups and downs along the way should deter you from chasing bets. What stock doesn’t have a down day? Surely your 401k has dipped in the past. Do you watch both in real time all the time? Of course not. Not watching the game you just bet on in real time is starting to sound pretty smart, isn’t it?
There are tons of chase betting systems in existence, but the worst type of chase bet is chasing a bad loss with another bad loss. This only complicates things even more. If you are simply throwing money on top of lost money to try and get back what you feel was ‘taken’ from you it’s probably not coming back the second time around either. Cut your losses. There isn’t a chase betting system on the planet that calls for doubling down blindly.
Remember the basics–solid handicapping, fundamental mathematics, money discipline. These sports betting systems are tried and true.
Many bettors have a tendency to ignore the basic rules of their sportsbook since most sports betting rules tend to be the same everywhere. Regardless, there are some cases that turn up that will make you tear your hair out if you don’t understand the important rules that have been set by a particular sportsbook.
Basically here, I’m talking about two cases where you will be left wondering “Did I just win?” The first illustration comes from figuring out when a game is considered complete in the eyes of a sportsbook.
When we’re talking about sports betting tips only occasionally will you see an NFL game called based on the weather conditions or the arena losing power in an NHL game, but it has indeed happened. The usual rules for these type of situations in the NFL, NBA, and NHL is when there is 5 minutes or less left in the match, then it’s considered the official ending.
Now this issue becomes even more important during the Major League Baseball season. Weather has canceled a countless number of games over the years and it is important to know when your game is final. If you have taken a money line in a game, it must go past five innings (or four and a half if the home team is ahead) for a game to be official.
However, just remember that it is different for run lines and totals. These two type of wagers must go the full 9 innings (or again, 8.5 if the home team is ahead) in order for the game to be complete. If you took the Red Sox up six runs for the game, and then it was called after 8 innings, then your wager would be considered void. This is a tough hit, but when these cancellations land in your favor, it can really save you big time.
The second illustration happens when a bettor pushes on a parlay or a teaser. The rules for these types of bets vary for every sportsbook. Some go with the notion that a push is a tie and the bet is canceled, or some will say that a push is a loss.
An important tip to remember is to be clear about the rules with your bookie before any problems like this come up. This is important because if you are using a local bookmaker, they often lean towards making the rules in their favor as compared to an online sportsbook where they tend to be more fair.
Just be sure to clear up any misconceptions you have with your bookmaker. I, and countless others have been burnt by this issue in the past, and it can really do serious damage as stakes go up. The point is, you don’t want the weather to be a contributor to you losing the pot!
Another Saturday, another crop of easy picks. What a life. We’ll keep this post short and sweet so you can continue your handicapping and beer drinking. Or so we can continue drinking and handicapping.
We have a guaranteed winner starting at noon tomorrow and the winning won’t stop until late in the evening! There are so many mismatches against the spread tomorrow we can hardly contain ourselves.
Single picks can be purchased below.
The triple play package can be found below.
Remember, two of the three games need to win in order for the package to win. Since the picks are guaranteed, if they lose, you get it all back.
Season Passes can be found below. This package has the best value, as you will receive two to four picks every week for the entire college football regular season. You get every pick before the bowl season starts. One time offer with no refunds. You get the entire game breakdown just as you would every other pick.
VIP’ers……you know just ‘about’ where to go to find your special package;)
Get at it folks….we have some serious money to win.
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You have to handicap the NFL regular season much different than the preseason–you should know this already. Starters start and play the whole game, not just quarters or halves. The effort level of those starters is elevated, to an extent. Crowds become a factor. Refs have ironed out their kinks with the new rule changes. Adapt to the changes and you’ll make some money. But what do I look for?
What we will be looking for as Week One approaches:
How does the return of Revis affect the Jets/Ravens game, or the pattern of betting? And Houshmandzadeh joining the Ravens….does that neutralize the fact that Revis will see time?
Does the surprise showing of the Cleveland offense make them a sharp over bet (or a straight up winner, for that matter)?
The new rule that states the backfield referee must be ‘set’ before a play can be run….will the Colts suffer all season with this new rule change?
Does Dennis Dixon stand a chance running Pittsburgh’s offense against a good Atlanta defense?
Can Derek Anderson beat the spread (Cardinals -4) against Sam Bradford’s Rams?
Lot’s to consider. Let’s start with what NOT to look for:
1) What happened last year–don’t waste your time with this. Past performance is a poor measure of future results, especially against the spread. Remember the buddy you had in high school who still talks about the good ole days on the ball field and how easy it was to ‘bag’ the cheerleaders and blah blah blah? He still lives at home, doesn’t he? Sad. Don’t be that guy.
2) Injuries or starters that are out in Week One–the line was most likely set with these factors in mind. Don’t handicap your NFL betting twice….handicap your game with the understanding that lines take these things into consideration before hand.
3) Overs for the sake of betting the over—remember, the defense is always ahead of the offense when it comes to the NFL preseason carrying over to the regular season. When in doubt, look for a sharp under bet this week, for this reason.
What you should be looking for:
1) Surprises—will Detroit really lose double digit games AGAIN this year? Will they be equally horrible against the spread? Might they beat Chicago at Soldier Field? Look for the unexpected first, everything else second.
2) Weather—this should be an every week thing for you. By the way, hurricane season starts in Miami in November. Become your own Doppler radar when betting the NFL.
3) Second half overs—more points are scored in the fourth quarter than any other quarter. Where will the opportunities exist to cash in on some easy second half overs?
Every sports betting system should include some type of strategy that has been tested every year. Don’t test on the fly–you’ll learn the hard way. Rely on past data, like we have, to formulate your theory. Keep looking for unique opportunities and angles and play those angles once you are comfortable with what you have discovered.
We have opinions on every game during the first week of the season but only release our strongest opinions as our paid picks. Look for them in the coming days–they’re always guaranteed.
We see a plethora of easy money games to bet on this college football Saturday, but none we feel more confident about than this game right here! We have identified a mismatch that odds makers have left wide open and we jumped on it. We’ve been taking advantage of those lines for decades.
This season to date we are 3-0 and the winning continues on Saturday with this money maker.
Take this pick to the bank– we guarantee the winner. You heard me right, guaranteed. If the pick loses (it won’t) you get every penny back. No questions asked. Simple as that. College football betting has never been this easy.
It’s finally here. The college football betting season is upon us. I have goosebumps as I type this. Not only because the college football season is the easiest for me to handicap, but because I am a fan of the game.
Usually, I don’t even watch the games I have a financial interest in nor do I read the paper the morning after to see what went right or wrong. College football, for me, is slightly different. There is something incredibly enduring about college students and fans alike getting together in droves to watch the team play. That type of celebration represents everything that is right with the world.
The season officially kicks off Thursday as the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes take on the unranked Marshall Thundering Herd. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. eastern standard time.
For those of you betting this game, there will be some things you should seriously consider before making your final decision and we have to lowdown, right here.
The public perception of the Buckeyes for this game is that Jim Tressel isn’t the type of coach to run up the score of the game. Also, Ohio State’s opener last year was much too close for comfort against a pedestrian Navy football team. There are legions of individuals who don’t think Terrell Pryor should be getting anywhere near the amount of Heisman trophy ‘love’ that he currently garners. Sounds like slight over hype for the Buckeye machine.
Marshall comes into the season with optimism as their new coach, Doc Holliday. Doc Holliday was a former assistant coach at West Virginia and was also an assistant to Urban Meyer at Florida. Marshall is considered a middle of the road Conference USA team with experienced receivers and a spread offense mentality. They have some solid players, and have some decent recruits as a result of their recruiting efforts in the offseason.
From a betting perspective, all of the discussion has hinged on Ohio State and their conservative coach. There hasn’t been much of any discussion on how average this Marshall team is. Let’s face it, this team sucks. They aren’t going to give a top 5 team much of a fight. When the majority of the discussion for the Thundering Herd revolves around the coaching upgrade, with little discussion on the team itself, you know you have something. And sharp bettors do, in this case.
Ohio State returns the majority of their play makers on offense and has arguably the best defense in the nation. In most cases, the defense is ready sooner than the offense. That said, both Ohio State’s offense and defense are head and shoulders above a Marshall squad who will finish in the lower half of their division this year.
On one hand, I agree that Jim Tressel isn’t the type to run the score up out of respect for his opponent. On the other hand, I believe he has enough confidence in his star quarterback to allow him to make plays.
Our selection, and as a free pick to kick off the college football betting season, is Ohio State in the first half. The Buckeyes get at it early, and often. We agree that Tressel may not be interested in scoring 45 points, but this one gets away early.
Take the Ohio State Buckeyes in the First Half.